Latin Finance- Venezuela Bonds Rally on Regime Change Bet

Investors position for gains as odds rise of US-backed transition

Bets on regime change in Venezuela surged Thursday following reports the United States is conducting covert operations on the ground, giving the country’s long-embattled bonds another jolt higher as investors wager that President Nicolás Maduro’s grip on power may finally be slipping.

Venezuela’s 2031 11.95% sovereign bond has climbed 59% this year, rising from 16 cents on the dollar in January to 26 cents as of Thursday, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. The state oil company’s 2035 9.75% bond is up more than 84% over the same period...

Some investors say Venezuela’s depressed bond prices remain compelling even after the recent surge. “Venezuela remains one of the lowest-priced sovereigns globally,” said Lee Robinson, founder of London-based Altana Wealth. “We have long argued that Venezuela represents the greatest sovereign trade of the decade and these bonds have been on our radar since our first investment in 2020, well ahead of the current market attention.”

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